OK. Sunday at Mar-a-Lago. The President of Ukraine, the President of the United States, and a small delegation. Three hours of meetings. Before the meetings, the President of the United States talked to the President of Russia for over an hour by phone. That is the order in which it happened. Russia first, then Ukraine.
After the three hours, the President of the United States, at the press availability, said the Russia-Ukraine peace deal is closer than ever. He said ninety-five percent of the issues have been settled. He acknowledged there is a thorny remaining five percent. He said the thorny part is territory.
Buddy. Let me translate. The territory part means which country the towns of Donbas, Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson belong to. That is the question. That is not five percent. That is, on the map, about one hundred and twenty thousand square kilometers of land. Approximately the size of North Carolina. The question of which country North Carolina belongs to is not five percent of any peace deal. That is the peace deal. The other ninety-five percent is the cover sheet.
The cover sheet, by the way, is fine. The cover sheet includes prisoner-of-war exchanges, which Ukraine wants. Includes a security framework around Ukraine, which Ukraine wants. Includes economic reconstruction commitments, which Ukraine wants. All cover sheet. The territory part, the one part, is the part Russia wants. Russia wants the towns. Russia currently has about eighty percent of those towns under occupation. Russia is not going to leave them.
The President’s framing, closer than ever, is, in the negotiating sense, the deal is the same deal it was in March. In March, when the first set of conversations happened, the territory question was the thorny part. In June, when the second set of conversations happened, the territory question was the thorny part. In October, when the Budapest summit was scheduled and then unscheduled, the territory question was the thorny part. In December, on Sunday, the same.
I have run a casino floor for thirty years. I have negotiated with vendors every Tuesday for thirty years. When the vendor and I have agreed on everything except the price, we have not agreed on the deal. We have agreed on the cover sheet. The price is the deal. The price has not moved.
The President, after the press availability, returned to the golf course. The President of Ukraine returned to Florida airport, then to Warsaw, then to Kyiv, then to a country that is, this morning, still at war. The press, after the press availability, returned to the press van. The press van returned to the press hotel. The press hotel returned the press to the same story they have been writing since March.
I am arguing with the television. The television is, on Sunday night, closer than ever.
The breakdown.
- Factual basis The meeting and the readouts are on the record. The percentage is rhetorical.9/25
- Self-awareness Saying 95 percent is settled while the unsettled five is sovereignty is the part.5/20
- Staff containment Both readouts emphasized the difficulty of the territory question.9/20
- Recovery attempt The President framed unspecified obstacles as still possible.5/15
- Public spectacle Front of every foreign desk Sunday night and Monday morning.12/20
Was this dumb enough?
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