OK. Hon. The President of the United States, on Thursday afternoon, on Truth Social, announced a ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The announcement came at roughly the same moment the Israeli Prime Minister was, according to multiple Israeli outlets, in a meeting with his own cabinet ministers, telling them he learned of the ceasefire from the news.
The Prime Minister, hon, is the country’s chief executive. The country is Israel. The war is the war Israel is fighting. The Prime Minister, on Thursday, had to explain to his own ministers that he had been committed to a ten-day pause by the President of the United States via a Truth Social post he was now reading.
I have been in the casino business. I have watched a general manager announce a new comp policy on Twitter before telling the floor staff. I have seen the floor staff find out about the new comp policy from the players. I have seen a general manager lose the room in one tweet. The Prime Minister of Israel, hon, is not the floor staff, but the floor staff analogy is not flattering to either party.
The ceasefire, on its own terms, is a positive development. The Government of Lebanon committed to meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel. The Government of Israel paused the kind of strikes that, eight days earlier, had killed three hundred and fifty-seven people in what the Lebanese press called Black Wednesday. The Vice President, per a senior official, had pushed Israel for days to be more careful in Lebanon. The Vice President, in this telling, is the careful one. That sentence, hon, is itself the news.
The Israeli Prime Minister, on the same Thursday, told his ministers that he had agreed to the ceasefire at the President’s request. The Israeli Prime Minister is, on the public record, a man who does not surprise easily. The Israeli Prime Minister, on Thursday, was visibly surprised.
You ever notice how the peace deals that land in the middle of the war arrive on the social network before they arrive on the secure phone.
Funny how that works.
The breakdown.
- Factual basis The ceasefire is documented; the PM's reaction is reported by Israeli political outlets.17/25
- Self-awareness The President posted the announcement before some of the named parties were aware.6/20
- Staff containment VP Vance is reported to have pushed Israel to scale back; the PM was not in the loop.8/20
- Recovery attempt The ceasefire took effect at 5pm ET; was later extended.8/15
- Public spectacle Top of every wire by Thursday afternoon.12/20
Was this dumb enough?
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