The document is, in publicly reported terms, twenty-eight points. The American author is Steve Witkoff, the President’s envoy. The Russian author is Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian President’s envoy. The Ukrainian author is no one, because no one from Ukraine was at the table when the document was drafted.
Among the reported provisions: that Ukraine will reduce the size of its armed forces by more than half, will cede territory currently held by Russia in the eastern Donbas, and will refrain from any future application to NATO. In exchange, the document offers Russia normalization, a relaxation of sanctions, and a path to participation in the global financial system from which it has been substantially excluded since February 2022.
The document was delivered to Ukraine the same day it was delivered to Russia. The President, on a Monday call, gave Ukrainian President Zelenskyy a deadline of Thanksgiving Day to accept it. Thanksgiving was ten days away. The Ukrainian President responded that Ukraine was facing “one of the most difficult moments in our history.”
This is the part where it is necessary to write down what is true, in plain language. The American envoy negotiated, in private, with the Russian envoy, over the territorial integrity of a sovereign third country, without that country’s representative present. The terms favor the country that started the war. The pressure is being applied to the country that was invaded.
A sovereign country’s territory, in the post-1945 international order this country built, is not a deal between the country’s enemies and the country’s largest patron. The deal is between the country and its enemies, with patrons advising. The patron’s job, in the simplest reading of how this is supposed to work, is to back the country’s negotiating position, not to draft an alternate one with the enemy in another room.
European foreign ministers met in emergency session on Wednesday. The State Department was not on the invitation. NATO Article 4 consultations were quietly initiated.
We are now writing peace deals about other people’s countries the way a real estate broker writes a listing on a property he does not own.
Calmly documenting the decline.
The breakdown.
- Factual basis The plan was reportedly drafted between Witkoff and Dmitriev with Ukrainian officials briefed afterward.12/25
- Self-awareness The Thanksgiving deadline was set on the same call as the briefing.5/20
- Staff containment European allies learned of the draft through leaks rather than through the State Department.7/20
- Recovery attempt Walked back from 'sign by Thanksgiving' to 'agree by Thanksgiving' over the weekend.5/15
- Public spectacle Headlines from Kyiv to Berlin. NATO foreign ministers met in emergency session.13/20
Was this dumb enough?
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