The deadline was Thursday. Thanksgiving Day. The country expected to accept the document by Thursday was Ukraine. The document, twenty-eight points long, had been negotiated between the President’s envoy and the Russian President’s envoy, in private, over several weeks, without Ukrainian input.
The terms include cession of territory currently held by Russia, a permanent prohibition on Ukrainian membership in NATO, and a fifty-percent reduction in the size of Ukraine’s armed forces. In exchange, Russia receives a path to sanctions relief, financial-system reintegration, and recognition of de facto control over the lands its army has taken since 2014. The American leverage is the threat of withdrawing further military assistance, intelligence-sharing, and air-defense interceptors that have been holding Ukrainian cities together through three years of strikes.
The deadline is American. Thanksgiving is American. Ukraine does not celebrate Thanksgiving. Ukraine, on Thursday, is celebrating nothing. The deadline is, in a literal sense, set on a day of the week the President will be at his Florida home, watching football, surrounded by family, while a sovereign country is supposed to decide whether to sign a surrender document drafted by its enemies.
European foreign ministers convened, on Saturday, an emergency session in Brussels. The Polish, Baltic, and Nordic foreign ministers issued a joint statement noting that “no peace can be sustainable that is dictated to the victim by the aggressor.” The German chancellor, in his own statement, used the phrase “ein Diktatfrieden,” a dictated peace, a phrase with a specific German weight. The British prime minister called it “unacceptable in form and in substance.”
The State Department, on Sunday, briefed reporters that the deadline was “flexible.” On Monday, the President, on his social network, said the deadline was firm. By Tuesday, the State Department was saying the deadline had been “an aspiration.” The framing migrated again across the holiday, in the absence of any public Ukrainian acceptance.
A serious country does not deliver an ultimatum to a country it has spent three years arming, in a document drafted by the country attacking it, with a deadline scheduled around its own family meal. We are not, by this measure, in that country anymore.
Calmly documenting the decline.
The breakdown.
- Factual basis Thanksgiving (Nov 27) was the public deadline; the plan was drafted with Russian input.12/25
- Self-awareness He set the deadline on a holiday weekend; the holiday was American.5/20
- Staff containment Witkoff and Rubio defended the timeline on the Sunday shows; European allies were furious.7/20
- Recovery attempt By Monday the deadline was 'flexible.'5/15
- Public spectacle European leaders held an emergency call. Markets opened lower in Frankfurt and London.13/20
Was this dumb enough?
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